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发布时间:2020-11-21 阅读量:78077 作者: lol外围

Just weeks after everyone seemed to agree that Chinas renminbi will depreciate this year, its heading back up again.就在所有人或许都确认人民币今年将不会升值的几周后,人民币汇率于是以再次回落。The currency has jumped half a per cent today — its biggest move since March 24, 2014 — to 6.199, its best valuation against the dollar since January 16.人民币币值美元汇率周四下跌0.5个百分点,至1美元兑6.199元人民币。这是自2014年5月24日以来的最低单日涨幅,让人民币汇率升到1月16日以来最低水平。

Chinas renminbi had its best day of 2015 on Wednesday, but policymakers appear to want to see the currency be worth even more.人民币汇率周三的展现出为2015年来最佳,但决策者或许期望看见人民币汇率下跌更加多。The volatility in USDCNY is impressive and speaks to the new trading regime that Chinese policymakers have been successful in encouraging, said Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist at Scotiabank.丰业资本(Scotiabank)外汇策略师萨沙泰汉伊(Sacha Tihanyi)回应:“人民币币值美元汇率的波动令人印象深刻印象,也证明中国决策者仍然希望的新的交易机制是顺利的。”Beijing set the fix — the mid-rate the around which the currency is allowed to trade — at 6.146 today, its lowest in three weeks. A lower fix means a higher renminbi and today it was lowered 16 basis points, the biggest downward move since February 6.中国央行周四将人民币汇率中间价以定在6.146美元,为3周来低于。中间价下浮意味著人民币汇率下跌。

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The Peoples Bank of China has been guiding the currency towards a higher valuation since the renminbi hit a 28-month low at the end of February.自人民币汇率2月底看清28个月低点以来,中国央行(PBoC)仍然在引领汇率走高。The depreciation earlier in the year made intuitive sense: as the economy slows down and its exports are hurt by the surging US dollar (which the renminbi is pegged to), a devaluation in the currency would help with easing efforts.今年早些时候,由于中国经济上升,同时出口受到美元汇率攀升的冲击,在北京实施严格政策之际,人民币升值将对经济有所助益。

This was certainly the line of thinking common among analysts. As noted in the FT last week, a recent survey by Société Générale failed to find anyone who thought the renminbi would rise against the dollar in the coming 12 months, while 42 per cent of respondents believed the PBoC would actively seek depreciation of the currency in response to declines in the yen and the euro.这也是分析人士此前的广泛观点。正如英国《金融时报》上周认为的那样,法国兴业银行(Société Générale)最近的一项调查找到,没有人指出未来12个月人民币币值美元汇率将下跌,而42%的受访者指出,中国央行将“大力谋求升值”以应付日元和欧元汇率暴跌。Instead, the currency is up 0.49 per cent today, following a 0.32 per cent climb yesterday and a 0.2 per cent move up on Tuesday. For many currencies those are tiny moves; for the tightly-controlled renminbi, they are huge (se chart).人民币币值美元汇率今日下跌0.49%,周三和周二分别下跌0.32%和0.2%。

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对于很多货币而言,这些波动浮动较小;但对于受到严苛管制的人民币而言,这是巨幅波动(闻右图)。Mr Tihanyi said todays move simply shows the PBoC reacting to overnight gains in other currencies. The US dollar index slumped more than 2 per cent against a range of rivals, so the PBoC followed suit.泰汉伊回应,周四的措施只是指出央行于是以对其他货币汇率前一夜的下跌作出反应。美元兑其他一揽子货币指数前一夜暴跌逾2%,因此中国央行也适当采取措施。

Its very much about the dollar, its all driven by the Fed, he said.他回应:“这在相当大程度上与美元有关,都是由美联储(Fed)推展的。”But more broadly, Beijing is still clamping down on speculative bets about the currencys direction, to create more uncertainty, Mr Tihanyi said. The PBoCs main goal is to increase flexibility in the forex market and normalise the currency.但泰汉伊回应,更加普遍地来说,中国仍在压制押注人民币汇率南北以导致更加多不确定性的投机活动。

中国央行的主要目标是增大外汇市场的灵活性,让人民币汇率南北正常化。Last year, the PBoC deliberately pushed the renminbi lower in an engineered squeeze to spook those who had made one-way bets on the currency, Mr Tihanyi said. This year the PBoC has stepped back, but with the consensus in recent weeks expecting the currency to fall, policymakers have been pushing it the other way.泰汉伊回应,去年,中国央行曾无意推低人民币汇率,以抓住那些单方面押注于人民币贬值的投机者。今年,中国央行增加了介入,但在最近几周市场达成协议共识预测人民币将升值时,中国决策者再度将人民币汇率推上忽略方向。

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